The recent crisis in the Red Sea, where attacks on container vessels continue to prompt significant disruption in global trade routes, has led to a dire prediction from shipping giant Maersk: This tumultuous situation might persist for up to a year.

On January 27, 2024, the tanker Marlin Luanda was set ablaze after an assault in the Gulf of Aden—a key waterway that flows into the Red Sea. This spate of maritime aggression, primarily by Iran-backed Houthi militants retaliating against Israel’s military actions against Hamas, began intensifying in late November last year.

Shipping companies are now grappling with escalating delays and increased operational costs affecting their bottom lines and raising fears over potential price hikes for consumers. Alreading reeling from persistent inflation woes, consumers may find themselves facing fresh financial burdens.

Richard Meade, editor-in-chief at Lloyds List, informed CNN of an “almost wholesale exodus” of larger container vessels from the Red Sea and its neighbour, the Suez Canal. To evade the unsettled region, these ships, which transport diverse cargo ranging from footwear to smartphone devices, are opting for lengthier detours.

The implications are noteworthy, as the Suez Canal—a vital maritime link between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean—handles approximately 10-15% of world trade, including critical oil exports, and facilitates around 30% of the globe’s container shipping volumes, including shipping containers to the middle east and shipping to europe. The impact of the disruptions could have flow on effects for areas a long way from the Read Sea for example shipping to PNG and shipping containers to the pacific islands

Despite this substantive shift in marine traffic, analysts have observed that the impact on international freight and shipping costs and supply chains, while palpable, doesn’t quite scale the heights of the disruption witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic’s peak.

Nonetheless, repercussions are felt across industries: Electric vehicle titan Tesla (TSLA) has had to suspend select production segments due to part delivery delays to its German manufacturing facilities. Similarly, Swedish furniture behemoth Ikea has flagged potential shortages on certain products as a direct result of the ongoing sea lane crisis.

According to Peter Sand, the lead analyst at Xeneta, there’s been a substantial reroute of about 90% of shipping capacity usually navigating the Red Sea and Suez Canal regions, with many ships veering around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope instead. This course alteration adds nearly two weeks on container voyages and a whopping 18 days for bulk carrier and tanker routes.

Additionally, soaring costs have triggered companies to resort to air freight for goods transportation as a faster albeit more costly alternative. Particularly noticeable has been an increase in airborne cargo from Vietnam to Europe, as reported by Xeneta’s data, reflecting an inclination for swift product deliveries despite the expense.

Financially, extra mileage on sea voyages racks up millions in additional expenses for carrier firms such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd—mostly attributable to inflated fuel prices. The knock-on effect is a rise in freight rates and emergency surcharges for companies.

The Drewry World Container Index this week noted that a standard 40-foot container’s global shipping costs are at $3,786, marking a staggering 90% increase year-on-year. The cost for shipping the same container size from Shanghai to Rotterdam surged by 158% from the previous year, pegging it at $4,426.

While current conditions are challenging, they are muted compared to the pandemic-induced shipping cost crest of $10,380 in September 2021. At that time, consumer demand for goods exploded due to pandemic-driven factors — a sharp contrast to current normalized levels and dampened consumer spending due to higher interest rates affecting credit purchases.

Simon MacAdam, Capital Economics’ deputy chief global economist, offered a silver lining: “We’re in a far better place than we were in the pandemic.” Despite the current hurdles, there’s an understanding that the pre-pandemic norm, though interrupted, remains within reach as the industry steels itself for the continued complexities of the Red Sea crisis.

Experts are closely monitoring the geopolitical landscape as it continues to inject volatility into global supply chains. With the UN Security Council’s recent discussions aiming at mitigating the hazardous situation, the hope is for a diplomatic resolution that could ease maritime tensions. Businesses, meanwhile, are advised to maintain flexible supply chain solutions, diversifying their transportation strategies to manage risk effectively in these uncertain times. The watchword is adaptability, as companies and economies brace for the potential long-term effects of these disruptions on global trade dynamics.